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The financial markets have latched on to some positive signs for economic recovery in recent weeks after an unrelenting series of negative news in previous months. This has led in our view to an overly optimistic outlook, reflected in some exchange rate and interest rate trends

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International Financial Outlook June, 2009

Investors thought they heard the death knell for global recession in May and increased their appetite for risk, shying away from government bonds and buying equities, commodities and currencies except the U.S. dollar

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Financial Markets Monthly - June 2009

The global recovery in 2009 is likely to be stronger than expected by consensus. We continue to expect the global recession to end in Q3 2009 and see this as one of the dominant drivers for financial markets in coming quarters. A combination of very lean inventories and a recovery…

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Global Scenarios: A Positive Feedback Loop